At the end of World War II the United States found themselves in the fortunate position of being able to dictate from the top of their undisputed position of winners and more economic power (they had 50% of world GDP and most of the gold reserves, as well as huge debts owed to Britain and other countries) the conditions under which they wanted to see rebuilt the international economic system. Among the conditions imposed to the countries that defeated Germany, Italy and Japan was the reopening of trade in accordance with rules of multilateralism, single rate and exchange rate low enough to elicit current exports from these countries. Then they had the intelligence to open their markets to products from those countries.
Given their enormous economic power, it was feared that they would invade with their goods to European markets. This did not happen because the U.S. had a huge domestic demand to be met, given that their citizens had amassed great savings because the war had reached full employment and the production of war had reduced the availability of consumer durables. By the end of the war
consumption exploded American industry was committed to producing for the domestic market. When the defeated countries were again able to export the American market was so desirous of goods and so full of money, to accommodate their products.
They expected global hunger dollars. But this did not last long, because the Americans began in the late forties the gigantic Marshall aid program and because it also gave, after the start of the Cold War, to cover the entire world with military bases, also providing military aid to the costly allies, in very favorable terms. So fell through the hunger for dollars and the dollar began instead a loss of value against other major currencies, boosted also by the trade surplus with the United States defeated the three countries began to accumulate. No reason for not wanting to reevaluate their currencies at the end of the fifties they began to accumulate dollars and gold, that the United States freely sold at a fixed rate of $ 35 an ounce.
When the U.S. gold reserves began to decline dramatically, not to cover up the movement of more dollars in paper, scattered over the world entries on the likely devaluation of the dollar. A nice change from the situation at the end of the war, only fifteen years earlier. Date those years the debate on the need to replace the dollar with a basket of currencies, the debate preceding the fluctuation of the dollar since August 1971 and continues to this day.
Today, however, the main creditors of the United States are all in the Middle and Far East (except for Russia, but is selling quickly accumulated reserves from the proceeds of the caropetrolio 20,072,008). Do not be so surprised if they are to keep alive the debate on the future of the dollar. In particular, the greatest creditor of the United States, China, pursuing a reasonable campaign to gain more power in international institutions. He wants, for example, that its share of the IMF is very increased and probably also wants to replace Strauss Khan at the head of that body is a Chinese. The Chinese ruling class, in addition, is not united in its internal relation to the strategy to be followed against the dollar. None of them want to detract from it too quickly and deeply. But there are "hawks" who would prefer to use the threat of the sale of government bonds in the hands of Americans to China to obtain several advantages on other tables of the continuous negotiation that China conducts with the United States.
So we saw the Chinese central bank governor propose the plan of special drawing rights, to replace the dollar as the basis of the international monetary system, so We see several prominent Chinese come forward and comment on the U.S. financial slump severely. But, as everyone knows, the Chinese are in no hurry. The world has made off in their hand, and they know they have more cards in hand most of the other players on the world stage.
This is not however equally true when one considers the position of the major oil-producing countries of the Middle East. They do not have the feeling that things revolve in one way in their favor. First, because oil prices at present are above the level of pure trade balance, and were again driven from forty U.S. dollars last year, to the actual values \u200b\u200bby a pick- Speculation is rising. If this fails, go back down to levels far less profitable. But what most worries the Gulf countries is the foreign policy of the Obama administration. The Saudis, in particular, fear that Obama will start to make too many concessions to Iran and that this reinforced the Shiite faction in the area. Recall that the territories where are the Saudi oil fields are inhabited by Shiite populations and that the current U.S. vice president, Joseph Biden, was the author in recent years of a plan to split into three parts of Saudi Arabia, which was given to Shiites control the oil wells.
What I said about the price of oil is worth even more to what relation to the markets of raw materials. There, the reasons for the high prices have failed, because the current conditions of the offer agree with much lower prices. As is known, since it intervened in the mass speculation in these markets, an expected depreciation of the dollar leads almost automatically to a strong upward effect on these prices, because the raw materials are seen as stores of value, just like gold, to buy when the dollar is wavering.
So, as to think the worst usually you can guess, it is possible that authorities, fearing a collapse of the dollar, to create in the speculators who have positions in the commodities markets is a primary incentive to renew these positions, instead of selling them, as I said the short-term forecasts on the market of these goods.
The decline of the dollar may have also influenced the finding that anyone can do, that the U.S. financial system, which was to end the crisis deeply reformed, but continues without its main defects been rectified. Investment banks have become commercial banks, so they can receive public money, but having been using it to manage huge speculative positions, at great risk, from which they began to make great profits again.
The derivatives markets have not been reorganized as a centralized markets, but still, for what little that is combined in this area, as the sum of individual transactions of "custom", on which all but ignores those who manage earns a lot. In addition, there is no guarantee that the market for home loans in America survives only because it was nationalized, since the major brokers have been saved and are now owned by the government and the Federal Reserve. If you try to re-privatized, everything can fall again.
This series of considerations may help to explain the weakness of the dollar. It has become a structural since the U.S. economy is stagnating because of the crisis, while those of emerging economies (the BRICs) are continuing their course, In a few years in the U.S. will produce yes and no 20% of world GDP and will be even less true today that a large part of international transactions as a counterparty will the United States.
Since those who govern America knows that this scenario is certainly more than likely, and he knows just as well those who govern China, both sides in the near future we will try to make a gradual passing of the baton in the international monetary field. The American financial circles also will try to mediate this change. But it can not consist in the purchase, the Chinese side, investment banks and U.S. investment funds, as was the case of the U.S. relay team England. Consist instead, provided that the devil we do not put the tail causing some unexpected and ruinous crisis, in a gradual return to a public organization of international finance, the reform of the IMF and the introduction of some form of global currency, the type of special drawing rights, with the Chinese claim that their trading partners that their transactions are carried out in that currency composite.
In the short term, however, to go in between, if the dollar gave ground, will be the Euro, the only other currency that is not required to a level considered affordable by the central bank that issues it. The ECB has no reservations or political mandate to do so. So, Chinese, Saudis, speculators in commodities sent down the dollar and the euro rise is only the course. Bad news for industrial workers and Germans and Italians, who are trying to recover from the blow suffered in 2008 \\ 2009.
Marcello De Cecco, La Repubblica Affari & Finanza ', October 12, 2009
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